NYCB Worry Doing The Rounds, Off London Lows

Tsys unwind the initial London move lower.

• TYM4 +0-02 at 110-16 (110-08 to -17 range so far).
• Initial support: Feb 23 low (109-25+), initial resistance: 20-day EMA (110-25+).
• Cash Tsy yields are 0.5-1.5bp lower across the curve.
• NYCB-related worry is present after the bank highlighted material weakness re: internal controls, missed the deadline re: filing its annual report and changed its CEO late on Thursday.
• Pre-market indications for the name have extended yesterday’s post-market weakness (indicated ~30% weaker).
• Our credit team believes that most of the issues appear to be name-specific, not systemic. That doesn’t rule out pressure in related/linked names in NY equity trade.
• Elsewhere, final Eurozone manufacturing PMI was a little firmer than expected, although still contractionary.
• Eurozone CPI data was a little firmer than consensus, but in line with the tracking provided by national releases, limiting any sell off.
• The ISM manufacturing survey headlines the U.S. calendar today. Final PMIs & UoM sentiment readings are also due.
• The Fedspeak slate is also heavy, with no less than 8 scheduled appearances noted. The highlight will likely be the Waller-Logan discussion centred on QT.