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NYFed Inflation Expectation Jump Looks Food And Gas Driven

US

The jump in median inflation expectations (1-Year: 5.94% in Oct vs 5.44% Sep) in the NY Fed's consumer survey looks largely a result of a rebound in food and energy price expectations.

  • 1Y median gas price expectations were +4.8% (after +0.5% in Sep) and +7.6% for food (vs 5.8% prior) - most other categories were fairly steady albeit at elevated levels vs pre-pandemic.
  • Given the volatility of gas prices in particular, a single-month jump in expectations shouldn't be taken as a sign of de-anchoring.
  • But the disinflationary impact on expectations of the drop in commodity prices since the start of the year may be behind us.

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