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NZD Downside in Focus as RBNZ Blink in Face of COVID Spread

FOREX
  • Following further confirmation of COVID spread in New Zealand, the RBNZ opted against any change to policy, keeping rates unchanged at 0.25%. This prompted broad selling pressure in NZD/USD down to 0.6870, but this losses were swiftly reversed as the bank pointed toward October as the next meeting at which rates will likely be raised.
  • The USD traded softer overnight, but ranges have been relatively contained - typified by EUR/USD's 20 pip bounce off the overnight lows of 1.1702. The low print in the pair is worth watching, showing signs that markets are putting key support at 1.1704/02 under pressure. A break through here in European or US hours would be more notable, opening losses toward 1.1603 and putting the pair at the lowest level since November last year.
  • UK inflation data was mixed, with CPI coming in below forecast while RPI beat expectations. Most CPI measures missed by 0.2ppts or so, pressing GBP/USD toward the overnight lows, but the weakness has largely been erased ahead of the NY crossover.
  • US housing starts, building permits & Canadian CPI are the data highlights. FOMC minutes are also due.
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