NZD Edges Higher As Geopolitical Tensions Ease

The Kiwi is the top performing G10 currency, up 0.41% vs the USD as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and the Federal Reserve entered a blackout period before its May 1 policy decision. The BBDXY down 0.09% at 1,263.19. NZGBs yields are 5-7bps higher today and have reversed the move made on Friday, otherwise it has been a quiet day in the local market.

• NZD/USD is up 0.41% at 0.5912, just off highs of 0.5929. The downward trend remains intact with the currency still trading below the 20, 50, 100 & 200-day EMAs, the 14-day RSI is remains below 50, at 39. A break back below 0.5900 would open up a retest of 0.5864 (Nov 11 lows) while initial resistant is at 0.5950 (Apr 15 highs).
• AUD/NZD is a touch lower today, down 0.08% at 1.0891, the cross has been trading sideways and just slightly above the 20-day EMA recently. The AU-NZ 2y swap is 4bps lower -94.75bps. Initial support is 1.0883 (20-day EMA), a break below here would open test of the 50-day EMA, while a break back above 1.900 would be needed to retest 1.0920 (Apr 15 highs).
• NZD/JPY is 0.42% higher today at 91.446, the cross traded through the 20, 50 & 100-day EMA's on Friday as investors looked for haven assets, however as risk assets have bounced the cross has traded back above all three, while the 14-day RSI indicator has also just ticked back above 50 to 53. Initial support is 91.10/20 (50 & 20-day EMA), while initial resistance is 92.00 (Apr 11 highs).
• Looking ahead, JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Composite on Tuesday, NZ Trade Balance & AU CPI on Wednesday.