NZD Holds Tight Range, RBNZ Rate Hike Doubts Emerge

The NZD has held within a tight range in Asian trading, fluctuating between lows of 0.6051 and highs of 0.6065, currently trading at 0.6064

• Overnight, Commerzbank expressed the view that the RBNZ won't pursue further rate hikes following the 2yr inflation expectation data dropping to its lowest level since Q3 2021 at 2.5%, within RBNZ's 1-3% inflation target range.
• This morning REINZ House Sales data was out, coming in at 4.9% for Jan, vs 14.1% in December. Also out earlier today was the Jan CPI components, food prices increased 0.9% vs -0.1% in dec, this was the first monthly increase since August driven by grocery prices.
• NZDUSD has traded in a narrow range during Asia after touching 0.6050 post-US CPI on Tuesday. An attempt to retest 0.6050 level was met with buying, the pair now trades at 0.6064. A break and hold below 0.6050 may signal further weakness towards the 0.6000 level (lows from May 31), while the 20 and 50-day EMAs hold comfortably above spot at 0.6120/6135.
• AUDNZD has traded largely unchanged today, after hitting a high of 1.0659 the pair trades back near opening levels and lows of the day at 1.0648. Technical levels remain unchanged with initial support at 1.0600 (lows from feb 9th) a break below here could signal a move to the yearly lows of 1.0560. Initial resistance remains at 1.0695/1.0700 area (highs from Feb 13th/ 20-day EMA), while the 20 and 50-day EMAs are situated at 1.0700/1.0740.
• Looking ahead: US MBA Weekly Applications Index Later today and AU has Employment Data out tomorrow