NZD/USD Tracks Recent Ranges, RBNZ Pushes Back Against Rate Cut Timing

Post the Asia close, NZD/USD largely stuck to recent ranges. We got close to 0.6070, but moved back sub 0.6040, late in NY trade. We currently track at 0.6040/45, with the kiwi having lost 0.20% for Tuesday's session. The NZD underperformed GBP and JPY, but was firmer against some higher beta plays like AUD, albeit at the margins.

• The NZ data calendar has the ANZ May activity and business confidence prints on tap today. The prior reads were -7.6 for activity and -43.8 for confidence. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate has reached a contractionary level at 5.5% and will likely stay there until mid-2024, despite market expectations for an earlier cut, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway told MNI, see this link for more details.
• In the cross asset space, we had a further pull back in US yields post the Asia close, with the 2yr off 11bps to 4.45% for Tuesday's session. US data was mixed as survey prints point to downside risks for the ISM print, although consumer confidence rose. This was offset by softer commodity indices and a less supportive equity market backdrop.
• NZD/JPY was on the backfoot, getting to lows around 85.30/35, which coincides with the simple 200-day MA, we sit slightly higher now, last near 84.50. The AUD/NZD sits off recent highs, last near 1.0780.