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NZGBS: Bull-Flattening After Mixed Results From Weekly Auctions

BONDS

NZGB curve closed with a bull-flattening (flat to 2bps richer) after today’s weekly supply saw mixed results across the lines. The May-32 and May-41 lines saw cover ratios over 3.00x, while the Apr-27 bond saw cover at a poor 1.69x (3.80x previously).

  • In addition to the previously outlined Manufacturing Volume data, the RBNZ published new credit flow figures for January. Total New Lending fell 2.1% y/y, while New Residential Lending rose 9.2%y/y.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s post-Powell bull-flattening. Later today sees Weekly Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and day two of Chair Powell's testimony, ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
  • Swap rates closed 2-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter and implied swap spreads narrower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across meetings beyond July. A cumulative 52bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty.
  • RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr and Chief Economist, Paul Conway will speak about the February Monetary Policy Statement at separate events over 12-14 March 2024.
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