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NZGBS: Closed On A Soft Note, Cheaper Ahead Of Q2 Employment & Wages Data Tomorrow


NZGBs closed on a low soft note with yields 3bp cheaper across benchmarks ahead of tomorrow’s Q2 employment and wages release.

  • Swap rates closed 2-5bp higher with the 2s10s curve steeper and long-end implied swap spreads wider.
  • RBNZ dated OIS closed with pricing little changed. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.68%.
  • Home-building approvals rose 3.5% m/m in June versus a revised -2.3% in May, according to Statistics NZ.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will feature Q2 employment and Wage data. Indicators point to a promising 0.6% increase in employment during the June quarter, attributed to a surge in migrant arrivals that has enabled employers to fill long-standing vacancies. However, due to the influx of migrants boosting the labor force, the unemployment rate is predicted to slightly rise to 3.5%. This continues a gradual upward trend from last year's historically low rate. Private Wages Including Overtime are expected to print 1.2% q/q versus +0.9% previously. CoreLogic house prices are also due tomorrow.
  • As the local market has already closed prior to the RBA policy decision, tomorrow's opening is anticipated to be influenced not only by the overnight movements in global bonds but also by the Australian market's reaction to the announcement.

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