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NZGBS: Closed On A Weak Note After Business Confidence Jumped To Multi-Year Highs

BONDS

NZGBs closed 3-4bps cheaper and near session cheaps after today’s ANZ Business Confidence report.

  • Forward-looking ANZ business confidence and activity outlook jumped in August to multi-year highs, but current activity remains very weak. Business confidence rose to 50.6 from 37.1 in August, the highest since 2014. The activity outlook rose to 37.1 from 16.3, the highest in 7 years.
  • There was little difference in pre-and post-RBNZ meeting responses. Inflation expectations eased but pricing intentions picked up after the RBNZ said that it is important for price setters to adjust to the return of low inflation. This survey was on the list of high-frequency indicators that resulted in its change in view and subsequent rate cuts.
  • Lacklustre demand at today’s weekly NZGB auctions also possibly weighed on the market. Cover ratios across the lines were a tepid 1.52x to 2.36x.
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session. Nvidia’s results and Fed Bostick’s remarks aftermarket have had little impact.
  • Swap rates closed 4-5bps higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer across meetings. A cumulative 72bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see ANZ Consumer Confidence and Building Permits data.
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