NZGBS: Closed Weaker Near Morning Cheaps

NZGBs closed near session cheaps with benchmark yields 6-9bp higher and the 2/10 cash curve 3bp flatter. With no local data or meaningful local news flow, the NZGB market basically held near opening levels following the weaker lead-in from US tsys after solid non-farm payrolls data on Friday. NZ/US and NZ/AU 10-year yield differential both closed 1bp wider at respectively +72bp and +76bp.

• Swap rates closed 5-6bp higher with implied short-end swap spreads tighter.
• RBNZ dated OIS closed with pricing 1-6bp firmer across meetings with Apr’24 leading. 24bp of tightening is priced for the May 24 meeting.
• The local calendar is scheduled to release Retail Card Spending data for April tomorrow with a continued shift towards services expected.
• In Australia, Treasurer Chalmers is slated to hand down his first Federal Budget tomorrow. If it turns out to be significantly expansionary then RBA rate expectations may be affected.
• Further afield, the calendar is relatively light ahead of Wednesday’s release of US CPI for April.