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NZGBS: Quiet Open Despite U.S. Tsy Sell-off

BONDS

NZGBs open 1-2bp cheaper after U.S. Tsy 10-year yields push towards the year-to-date high of 3.90% with initial jobless claims and PPI data suggesting the Fed has more work to do. StL. Fed President Bullard added to the selling pressure stating that he wouldn’t rule out a move back to 50bp hikes at the March meeting.

  • A subdued open for swap with rates flat to 1bp higher across the curve.
  • This month's RBNZ-dated OIS holds around yesterday’s close just under 50bp of tightening. Market talk about the RBNZ pausing its tightening cycle in lieu of the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle appears to continue to have an impact, although seems unlikely given the inflationary backdrop. Terminal OCR pricing is 2bp lower at ~5.31%, continuing the recent pull away from this week’s high of 5.50%.
  • With no local news events in NZ or Australia, other than RBA Governor Lowe’s appearance before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, the markets will continue to be guided by developments abroad, particularly with global central bankers continuing to talk hawkishly and U.S Tsy 10-year approaching crucial technical levels.
  • Outside of that, rebuild costs, as well as GDP and inflation dynamics, surrounding the recent floods and cyclone will continue to dominate locally.
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