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NZGBs: Richer Start On Wednesday, 2-Year Inflation Expectations On Tap

BONDS

NZGBs have opened dealing 3-10bps richer across the major benchmarks. Kiwi Bonds are following US Tsys higher in early trade, 2024 rate cute expectations increased yesterday as last weeks FOMC meeting lingers in the space which has spilled over adding support to NZGBs.

  • 10 Year NZ US Swap Spread remains stable, we sit at 54bps which is well within recent ranges.
  • RBNZ dated OIS are stable, pricing a terminal rate of ~5.50% in Feb 24 with ~30bps of cuts by Oct 24.
  • Oil fell ~4.5%, its weakest day since July as weak trade data from China and a firmer USD weighed on Tuesday. WTI now sits at a touch above the $77 handle, its lowest level since 21 July.
  • On tap today we have the Q4 2-Year RBNZ Inflation Expectation, there is no estimate and the prior read was 2.83%.
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