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NZGBS: Richer, US Tsys Twist Steepen Ahead Of US Non-Farm Payrolls

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2-3bps richer after US tsys finished the NY session with a twist-steepening of the curve. Yields were 4.0bps lower to 3bps higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.72% versus the cycle high of 4.88% set yesterday.

  • US initial jobless claims remained stable at 207k, slightly below the consensus estimate of 210k. The four-week moving average also dipped to 209k, reaching its lowest level since February. These numbers reflect the labor market's robustness, providing positive signs in anticipation of the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls data release later today.
  • The US trade deficit fell to $58.3bn in August, its lowest level since June 2020.
  • Swap rates are 1bp lower, with implied swap spreads wider.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer for meetings beyond Feb’24. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.75% (+25bps) for Apr’24.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty. The next major release is Card Spending data on Tuesday.
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