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NZGBS: Slightly Richer, Narrow Ranges, Awaiting US Payrolls

BONDS

NZGBs closed flat to 2bps richer, with the 2/10 curve steeper, after dealing within relatively narrow ranges. The local calendar was empty today, with Card Spending data on Tuesday as the next major release.

  • NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed little changed. Nevertheless, At +80bp and +96bp respectively, the differentials remain close to their widest levels for the year.
  • US tsys are dealing flat to slightly cheaper across major benchmarks in the Asia-Pac session so far. Ranges have been modest ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls data later today. Bloomberg consensus expects +170k versus +187k prior. The unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 3.7% from 3.8% prior.
  • The swaps curve has bull-steepened, with rates 2bps lower to flat.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer for meetings beyond November. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.74% (+24bps) for Apr’24.
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