NZGBS: Strength Given Up As US Tsys Post-FOMC Rally Is Pared

NZGBs closed 3-4bps richer but well off the session’s best levels. There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined CoreLogic residential property prices. However, weekly supply saw lacklustre demand metrics, with cover ratios ranging from 1.32x to 1.88x. That likely contributed to the through-the-session cheapening.

• That said, the key driver of the move away from the session’s best levels was likely to have been today’s partial give-back of yesterday’s post-FOMC gains in US tsys. They are currently dealing 2-4bps cheaper across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session.
• Firms are pushing back their forecast for Fed cuts. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the 1st Fed cut to May from March. They still expect 5 cuts this year (BBG). Aberdeen sees the Fed cutting rates three times this year (BBG). This may be lending support to today's moves.
• Swap rates closed 1-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 4bps softer across meetings, with Oct-Nov leading. A cumulative 94bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see ANZ Consumer Confidence and Building Permits data.