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NZGBS: Subdued After Range Trade For U.S. Tsys

BONDS

NZGBs open 3bp cheaper as U.S. Tsys close lower after trading in a relatively narrow range. Risk improved following announcements over the weekend (UBS’s 3.25bn takeover of Credit Suisse and coordinated central bank action to enhance the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity) but was soured by news that Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders would take the $17bn loss in full.

  • NZ/US 10-year yield differential is -8bp.
  • A subdued open for swaps with rates 1bp cheaper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bp softer across meetings with terminal OCR expectations at 5.20% (+45bp of additional tightening across meetings out to July). April meeting pricing shows 22bp of tightening.
  • The February Trade Balance is slated to be released today (out soon 2145 GMT) with another significant deficit expected after declines in export prices and resilient import demand.
  • Elsewhere, RBNZ Chief Economist Conway is scheduled to give a speech: “The path back to low inflation in NZ” at a capital markets forum on Thursday.
  • Across the Tasman, the RBA Minutes are scheduled for release with some additional details likely to be provided regarding the dovish shift at the March meeting.
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