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NZGBS: Yields Higher After Budget Release, NZ$20bn Increase In Bond Program

BONDS

NZGB are 6-7bp higher after the release of Budget 2023 with an NZ$20bn increase in the bond program expected over four years.

  • The Operating Balance Excluding Gains and Losses (OBEGAL) is projected to have a deficit of $7.0 billion in the fiscal year 2022/23, followed by a deficit of $7.6 billion in 2023/24. However, as the economy gains momentum, the fiscal outlook is expected to improve over the forecast period.
  • Nevertheless, the soft economic conditions and the impact of the Government's Budget 2023 decisions contribute to a slower recovery in OBEGAL compared to previous forecasts. Consequently, the expected return to an OBEGAL surplus has been delayed by one year to 2025/26.
  • Net debt as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to reach its peak at 22.0% in 2023/24 and gradually decrease to 18.4% by 2026/27.
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