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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
CPI is seen re-accelerating in October vs September, with the Bloomberg survey median forecast for headline CPI +0.6% M/M (+0.4% prior) and core +0.4% (+0.2% prior), with respective Y/Y rates of +5.9% (+5.4% prior) and +4.3% (+4.0% prior).
- Forecasts for core M/M CPI range from +0.2% to +0.5%, with an average of 0.38% and a standard deviation of +0.07%.
- There is widespread consensus that the main moves will come from used car prices and shelter, with potentially some smaller upside from apparel. Other travel-related services are seen as more mixed.
- Shelter should garner most attention to see to what extent a strong housing market feeds through to rents, as an indicator of longer-term inflation and wage expectations.
- JP Morgan, who were towards the middle of the pack with a core CPI forecast of 0.4% M/M, forecast both actual rents and owners' equivalent rents to have increased in the region of 0.35% M/M.
- For Sell-Side analysts' views, see our document
Bloomberg M/M % Core CPI Survey DistributionSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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