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Oct Core CPI Seen Re-Accelerating With Shelter The Big Question


CPI is seen re-accelerating in October vs September, with the Bloomberg survey median forecast for headline CPI +0.6% M/M (+0.4% prior) and core +0.4% (+0.2% prior), with respective Y/Y rates of +5.9% (+5.4% prior) and +4.3% (+4.0% prior).

  • Forecasts for core M/M CPI range from +0.2% to +0.5%, with an average of 0.38% and a standard deviation of +0.07%.
  • There is widespread consensus that the main moves will come from used car prices and shelter, with potentially some smaller upside from apparel. Other travel-related services are seen as more mixed.
  • Shelter should garner most attention to see to what extent a strong housing market feeds through to rents, as an indicator of longer-term inflation and wage expectations.
  • JP Morgan, who were towards the middle of the pack with a core CPI forecast of 0.4% M/M, forecast both actual rents and owners' equivalent rents to have increased in the region of 0.35% M/M.
  • For Sell-Side analysts' views, see our document

Bloomberg M/M % Core CPI Survey DistributionSource: Bloomberg

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