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October Central Bank Meeting Review – Unchanged Guidance

PERU
  • As expected by all surveyed analysts, the BCRP hiked the reference rate by 25bps to 7.00% at the October meeting, “thus continuing to adjust its monetary policy stance”.
  • The Bank indicated that the uptick in CPI observed in September was due to significant increases in international food and fuel prices. The board maintained its forecast for inflation and continue to expect a return to the target range (2% +/- 1%) in the second half of 2023.
  • The language on forward guidance was unchanged. The board remain “attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of inflation expectations and economic activity, to consider changes in the monetary stance.”
  • Given the fact that some analysts have forecasted that yesterday’s hike may mark the end of the tightening cycle, the unchanged language may be interpreted as hawkish at the margin, with further hikes in 2022 very much a possibility, depending on the economic data.
  • Full statement here: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/Informative-Notes/2022/informative-note-october-2022.pdf
  • The BCRP’s next monetary policy meeting/decision will take place on November 10.
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