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October Trade Mixed Bag, Import Recovery Hints At Firming Domestic Demand

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China Oct trade figures presented a mixed bag. Exports were weaker than expected at -6.4% y/y (-3.5% forecast and prior -6.2%). Imports surprised on the upside though, +3.0%y/y, versus -5.0% forecast and -6.3% prior. This left the trade surplus much narrower than forecast at $56.53bn ($82bn forecast).

  • The export result follows tentative signs of improving external demand, particularly in economies like South Korea and Taiwan. Export headwinds come at a time when domestic demand is not on a firm footing (although import data suggests some improvement on this front, see below).
  • All else equal the authorities are likely to be cautious around CNY NEER. However, as the chart below highlights, the y/y change in the NEER and export growth are reasonably well aligned at this stage.

Fig 1: CNY NEER Y/Y Versus China Export Growth

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China Oct trade figures presented a mixed bag. Exports were weaker than expected at -6.4% y/y (-3.5% forecast and prior -6.2%). Imports surprised on the upside though, +3.0%y/y, versus -5.0% forecast and -6.3% prior. This left the trade surplus much narrower than forecast at $56.53bn ($82bn forecast).

  • The export result follows tentative signs of improving external demand, particularly in economies like South Korea and Taiwan. Export headwinds come at a time when domestic demand is not on a firm footing (although import data suggests some improvement on this front, see below).
  • All else equal the authorities are likely to be cautious around CNY NEER. However, as the chart below highlights, the y/y change in the NEER and export growth are reasonably well aligned at this stage.

Fig 1: CNY NEER Y/Y Versus China Export Growth

Keep reading...Show less