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OECD Projects European Energy Shortages Would Generate a 2023  Recession for Europe

GLOBAL
MNI (London)
  • Demand reduction and supply diversification are necessary to avoid energy shortages. Reductions in energy supply to the EU from Russia are probable and anticipated to be highly disruptive.
  • Despite gas storage at around 90% capacity in the EU, this may not be sufficient to meet typical winter demand requirements. Gas supply will be problematic if demand reduction is inadequate and winter proves to be colder and longer.
  • The OECD projects European energy shortages would push up global energy prices again and would cut European growth by 1.25% and raise inflation by over 1.5% for the region. (This is according to the OECD's NiGEM model assuming a 50% gas price shock in Q1 2023 due to shortages).
  • A shock of this magnitude would see many European economies experience a full-year recession in 2023.

Source: OECD Global Outlook - September 2022

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