November 07, 2022 00:40 GMT
Off Early Peak On Global Factors & Local Supply
The early, modest uptick in futures stemming from the comments out of China over the weekend re: steadfast adherence to the country’s current ZCS has more than reversed.
- The pullback has been driven by the inflationary impulse surrounding the elongation of the existing Chinese COVID policy, in addition to the previously alluded to source reports re: back-channel U.S.-Russia discussions targeting a prevention of further escalation in the Ukraine war.
- Note the presence of the impending ACGB May-34 supply via syndication (which will price tomorrow) is probably adding further pressure to the space. The AOFM’s initial price guidance came in at 10-Year EFP +6-9bp, which was in line to a touch wider than most desk projections that we had seen.
- That leaves YM -3.0 & XM -6.5, with wider cash ACGB trade seeing 2-7bp of cheapening.
- EFPs are little changed today.
- Bills run flat to +3 through the reds.