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Off Fresh Multi-Year Lows But Still A Sizeable Belly-Led Cheapening

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries have pared some of the day’s sizeable belly-led losses in the second half of the session, with some risk-off flows most recently seen with Israel advising its citizens to leave Turkey.
  • Nevertheless, 5Y yields are still 14bps higher today, currently at 4.858% off an earlier high of 4.892% that marked fresh highs since 2007, of which 12.5bps comes from real yields.
  • TYZ3 trades at 106-11 (-27+) off earlier lows of 106-03+ which tested support at the Oct 4 low after which lies the round 106-00 before ultimately 105-06+ (2.0% 10-dma envelope). Volumes are elevated at a cumulative 1.9M.
  • At the front end, the Fed terminal is seen with a cumulative +15bp of hikes to 5.48% effective in January followed by 70bps of rate cuts to year-end, pushing below the 71bps seen after the hawkish FOMC dot plot on Sep 20.
  • Kashkari (’23 voter) still to come late on at 1700ET, whilst tomorrow sees a plethora of Fedspeak including permanent voters Waller, Williams and Bowman, along with the Fed’s Beige Book and housing data.
  • Recap of the day’s moves: Early trading started with a more outright bear steepening. It came from an extension of yesterday’s move linked to US efforts to prevent a widening of the Israeli-Hamas conflict through the broader region, as well as a heavy supply burden in both Asia-Pac and European markets along with the hawkish combination of touted wage demands from Japan's largest wage union re: Spring '24 wage talks and BBG sources pointing to adjustments higher in the BoJ's upcoming updated CPI projections.
  • The day’s moves then morphed into the belly-led sell-off seen at present after strong retail sales data, with the strength of domestic data later reinforced by an upward revision to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow to 5.4% annualized for Q3. There was minimal reaction to the NAHB housing index dropping to its lowest since January. There is also further political uncertainty after Jim Jordan failed to secure the speaker's gavel in a first roll call in the House.
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