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Off Intraday Lows Amid Little Meaningful Headline Flow

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs are off intraday lows alongside USTs, but remain weaker on the day.

  • Cumulative volumes in Bund, OAT and BTP futures have been lower than average today, with markets keeping one eye on risk events later this week (US CPI on Wednesday, ECB meeting on Thursday).
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 84bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 (vs 85bps this morning). Our ECB meeting preview is here.
  • Bunds are -38 ticks at 131.84, with today’s price action leaving the March 18 low at 131.54 untested.
  • The German and French cash curves continue to show a bear flattening dynamic, while 10-year periphery spreads to Bunds remain a touch tighter today.
  • Headline flow has generally been light.
  • Tomorrow’s regional calendar is also quiet, though features supply from Belgium, Austria and Germany.

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