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Off Midweek Lows Ahead Q1 GDP, Weekly Claims, Personal Consumption Data

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have bounced off midweek lows, drifting near overnight highs with focus on this morning's Q1 GDP, personal consumption and weekly jobless data at 0830ET. Following yesterday's post-7Y auction sell-off, market should see little influence on rates as US Treasury rounds up this week's supply with $70B 4- and 8W bill auctions at 1130ET.
  • Cash yields lower, 10s -.0219 at 4.5898%, 30s -.0188 at 4.7140%, curves mildly flatter after bear steepen this week, 2s10s -1.360 at 37.656.
  • Switching to Sep'24 futures the day before First Notice, heavier volumes overnight with TYU4 over 480k vs. 199k TYM4. Despite this morning's bounce, Treasuries remain vulnerable to a bearish theme after Wednesday's reversal extension from the May 16 high. The Sep'24 10Y contract has pierced 108-02+, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 25 - May 16 climb.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers include NY Fed President Williams speech at the Economics Club of NY (text, Q&A) at 1205ET; Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a moderated Q&A in El Paso at 1700ET.
  • Moderate US$ corporate bond issuance limited to Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait 5Y, National Bank of Kuwait 6NC5 today.

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