Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that the official China PMIs for May print tomorrow. The market expects a slight uptick in the manufacturing outcome to 49.5 (from 49.2, range of forecasts is 48.8 to 50.1). On the non-manufacturing or services side the market expects a pull back to 55.2 from 56.4 (range of forecasts is 51.0 to 57.0).
- Interestingly, the emerging industries PMI has already printed for May. It moved down to 50.7 from 53.1 in Apr. The chart below overlays this index against the manufacturing PMI.
- At face value it is arguing for downside risks around the manufacturing PMI, although the correlation between the two series is far from perfect.
Fig 1: China Official Manufacuring PMI Versus Emerging Industries PMI
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- More broadly, tomorrow's prints will be important for assessing economic momentum in China, particularly the weaker Apr activity data prints and the growth downgrades that followed.
- The second chart below is the Citi China EASI index against the consensus 2023 GDP growth expectation for China.
Fig 2: China 2023 GDP Growth Consensus Forecast Versus Citi China EASI
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok