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Official PMIs Out Tomorrow, Manufacturing & Services Forecast To Tick Higher

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China's official PMIs for May print tomorrow. The market expects a slight improvement in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing outcomes.

  • For manufacturing the consensus sits at 50.5, versus 50.4 prior. The survey range is 50.1 to 51.9. Manufacturing/industry has been a bright spot over recent months for the China economy. The April IP print came in comfortably above expectations, while the manufacturing PMI moved back into expansion territory in March.
  • The Emerging Industries PMI has already printed for May and it was down slightly but still above earlier 2024 lows. The chart below overlays this PMI against the official manufacturing PMI. There is some directional correlation, albeit with the Emerging Industries PMI much more volatile.
  • On the services or non-manufacturing side, the consensus is for a 51.5 outcome, versus 51.2 prior. The survey range is 51.0 to 52.3.
  • This side of the economy has generally been under more pressure, with consumer spending softening and property related activity remaining depressed. In recent months we have seen efforts to boost property sentiment clearly step up though.

Fig 1: China Official Manufacturing PMI Versus Emerging Industries PMI

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China's official PMIs for May print tomorrow. The market expects a slight improvement in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing outcomes.

  • For manufacturing the consensus sits at 50.5, versus 50.4 prior. The survey range is 50.1 to 51.9. Manufacturing/industry has been a bright spot over recent months for the China economy. The April IP print came in comfortably above expectations, while the manufacturing PMI moved back into expansion territory in March.
  • The Emerging Industries PMI has already printed for May and it was down slightly but still above earlier 2024 lows. The chart below overlays this PMI against the official manufacturing PMI. There is some directional correlation, albeit with the Emerging Industries PMI much more volatile.
  • On the services or non-manufacturing side, the consensus is for a 51.5 outcome, versus 51.2 prior. The survey range is 51.0 to 52.3.
  • This side of the economy has generally been under more pressure, with consumer spending softening and property related activity remaining depressed. In recent months we have seen efforts to boost property sentiment clearly step up though.

Fig 1: China Official Manufacturing PMI Versus Emerging Industries PMI

Keep reading...Show less