Offsetting Factors Keep Crude In A Narrow Range

Oil is holding on to its recent gains. It is only down slightly during APAC trading and has been in a narrow range, despite China trade data showing a drop in the volume of crude imports. Brent is down 0.4% to $76.72/bbl and WTI -0.3% to $72.92. The USD index is flat.

• Brent reached an intraday low today of $76.42 followed by a high of $76.90 and WTI $72.63 and $73.08 respectively. WTI has struggled to hold above $73 but is up 6.4% since Thursday’s close.
• China’s import volumes of crude fell 18.9% m/m in April but refined products rose 12.5% m/m. Further on the demand side, there are signs that US gasoline demand is easing despite the start of the driving season. In regards to supply, 234kbd of oil output has been affected by closures in Canada due to wildfires.
• The API US fuel inventory data and the US EIA’s short-term outlook report are published later today. OPEC’s monthly report is due on Thursday.
• Later the Fed’s Jefferson and Williams, and the ECB’s Lane speak. Other than that the data calendar is quiet with only US NFIB small business optimism for April ahead of Wednesday’s April CPI data, which will be key to the immediate Fed outlook.