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OFZs Remain Under Pressure, But Markets Eye Tentative Signs of CPI Stabilisation

RUSSIA
  • Local & USD bonds open slightly softer this morning, following on from yesterday's broadly risk-off session with simmering geopolitical risks and words of concern from CBR's Nabiullina on inflation keeping bonds on the backfoot.
  • Yields rose +7-11bp in the 5-15Y section of the curve with 7 & 10Y tenors most offered. 10Y yields have pulled back from the 8.00 handle after a smaller weekly CPI print sparked hopes of a moderation in price pressures.
  • Focus shifts to tomorrow's print for further signs of deceleration.
  • Its worth noting that most sell-side see CPI falling into year end with fruit and veg based inflation historically being temporary in nature with more favourable base effects entering the fray.
  • This could see conditions for OFZs improve markedly into 1H22 with the underlying fundamentals still strong and geopolitical risks current a bit exaggerated in terms of Ukraine tensions.
  • OFZ 10Y


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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