MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

OI Data Points To Low Conviction Friday Session

US TSY FUTURES
HomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

The combination of Friday's weakness in Tsy futures and preliminary OI data points to a mix of net short setting (FV & WN) and long cover (TU, TY, UXY & US).

  • There seemed to be a very modest bias towards net long cover in net curve OI DV01 equivalent terms, although the largest move in a single contract seemed to come via net short setting in FV futures.
  • Still, the net OI swings were limited on the day, pointing to a low conviction session.
  • The major input came from the downbeat UoM survey, which saw headline confidence readings fall and an uptick in inflation expectations, triggering further stagflation-related conversations.
  • Note that an alteration in the survey collection method may have impacted the data.
  • European holidays may have been a limiting factor for activity, with participants also looking ahead to this week's April CPI release.
  • Net positioning remains short across the futures curve (albeit skewed by basis trade positions) as of the latest CFTC CoT report, which we covered in an earlier bullet.
10-May-2409-May-24Daily OI ChangeOI DV01 Equivalent Change ($)
TU4,054,8504,081,426-26,576-964,004
FV6,155,4416,125,560+29,881+1,222,969
TY4,381,4274,391,849-10,422-661,726
UXY2,148,6882,154,000-5,312-455,372
US1,598,6631,603,558-4,895-622,559
WN1,642,7301,637,993+4,737+927,351
Total-12,587-553,341
209 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The combination of Friday's weakness in Tsy futures and preliminary OI data points to a mix of net short setting (FV & WN) and long cover (TU, TY, UXY & US).

  • There seemed to be a very modest bias towards net long cover in net curve OI DV01 equivalent terms, although the largest move in a single contract seemed to come via net short setting in FV futures.
  • Still, the net OI swings were limited on the day, pointing to a low conviction session.
  • The major input came from the downbeat UoM survey, which saw headline confidence readings fall and an uptick in inflation expectations, triggering further stagflation-related conversations.
  • Note that an alteration in the survey collection method may have impacted the data.
  • European holidays may have been a limiting factor for activity, with participants also looking ahead to this week's April CPI release.
  • Net positioning remains short across the futures curve (albeit skewed by basis trade positions) as of the latest CFTC CoT report, which we covered in an earlier bullet.
10-May-2409-May-24Daily OI ChangeOI DV01 Equivalent Change ($)
TU4,054,8504,081,426-26,576-964,004
FV6,155,4416,125,560+29,881+1,222,969
TY4,381,4274,391,849-10,422-661,726
UXY2,148,6882,154,000-5,312-455,372
US1,598,6631,603,558-4,895-622,559
WN1,642,7301,637,993+4,737+927,351
Total-12,587-553,341