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OIL: An Extension of OPEC+ Curbs Not Certain: Macquarie

OIL
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Macquarie isn’t so confident that an extension of OPEC+ curbs is certain. Saudi Arabia will adopt a “pragmatic path” with a “bias towards a tighter market, but not at all costs,” according to Bloomberg.

  • Cuts could be eased in Q3 followed by a pause in Q4, then revert to the current 9mbpd in March or Saudi Arabia could “do whatever is required to support prices.”
  • Saudi Arabia may have increased oil supply to market this year, including production and domestic deliveries, despite holding production steady in accordance with OPEC+ pledges. “This could represent mere noise,” but could have a bearing on upcoming OPEC+ discussions.
  • Total OPEC loadings have been steady compared to Q4 2023, despite pledges from several members to reduce production.
  • Global oil inventories have seen a surplus this year in contrast to a large Q1 deficit predicted by OPEC.
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Macquarie isn’t so confident that an extension of OPEC+ curbs is certain. Saudi Arabia will adopt a “pragmatic path” with a “bias towards a tighter market, but not at all costs,” according to Bloomberg.

  • Cuts could be eased in Q3 followed by a pause in Q4, then revert to the current 9mbpd in March or Saudi Arabia could “do whatever is required to support prices.”
  • Saudi Arabia may have increased oil supply to market this year, including production and domestic deliveries, despite holding production steady in accordance with OPEC+ pledges. “This could represent mere noise,” but could have a bearing on upcoming OPEC+ discussions.
  • Total OPEC loadings have been steady compared to Q4 2023, despite pledges from several members to reduce production.
  • Global oil inventories have seen a surplus this year in contrast to a large Q1 deficit predicted by OPEC.