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OIL: Brent Could Rise to $90s on Iran Supply Disruption: Goldman

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Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent could increase to the $90s if Iranian oil production was disrupted but upside would be dependent on if OPEC offset any lost supply, according to Bloomberg.

  • Brent could temporarily increase to $90/bbl assuming Iran supply disruption of 2mb/d over 6 months and if OPEC quickly offsets the shortfall. Without any offset in supply from OPEC, Brent would peak in the mid-$90s in 2025.
  • Tightening sanctions enforcement resulting in a persistent 1mb/d disruption could support Brent to the mid-$80s if OPEC gradually offsets the shortfall or to the mid-$90s in 2025 peak without any OPEC offset.
  • Without any supply disruptions Brent is forecast to average $77/bbl in Q4 and $76/bbl for 2025 while trading in the range $70-$85/bbl.
  • Iranian production has expanded by about 1mb/d over the past two years to an estimated 3.5mb/d and roughly equalling split between domestic consumption and exports.
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Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent could increase to the $90s if Iranian oil production was disrupted but upside would be dependent on if OPEC offset any lost supply, according to Bloomberg.

  • Brent could temporarily increase to $90/bbl assuming Iran supply disruption of 2mb/d over 6 months and if OPEC quickly offsets the shortfall. Without any offset in supply from OPEC, Brent would peak in the mid-$90s in 2025.
  • Tightening sanctions enforcement resulting in a persistent 1mb/d disruption could support Brent to the mid-$80s if OPEC gradually offsets the shortfall or to the mid-$90s in 2025 peak without any OPEC offset.
  • Without any supply disruptions Brent is forecast to average $77/bbl in Q4 and $76/bbl for 2025 while trading in the range $70-$85/bbl.
  • Iranian production has expanded by about 1mb/d over the past two years to an estimated 3.5mb/d and roughly equalling split between domestic consumption and exports.