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OIL: Crude Edges Higher Amid Softer USD After OPEC Supply Driven Decline

OIL
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Crude markets have found support with a softer USD as the market assess the possibility of US Fed rate cuts in September and despite an unexpected crude stock build in the latest EIA data.

  • Front month is still net down on the week after the bearish reaction to the OPEC+ plan to increase supply later this year. OPEC retains the flexibility to alter that plan depending on market developments.
    • Brent AUG 24 up 0.4% at 78.69$/bbl
    • WTI JUL 24 up 0.5% at 74.42$/bbl
    • Gasoil JUN 24 up 1.4% at 711$/mt
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.02$/bbl at 0.35$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.13$/bbl at 3.5$/bbl
  • EIA showed crude stocks built primarily on the Gulf Coast and West Coast amid an increase in both imports and exports. Refinery runs increased again with utilisation up over 95% and crude runs the highest since Dec 2019.
  • Saudi Aramco cut its OSP for Arab Light to Asia by $0.5/bbl to a $2.40/bbl premium over Oman/Dubai average, the first cut in five months and at the lower end of expectations. The cut comes amid falling Middle East crude benchmarks and weaker Asian refinery margins.
  • Fires at a the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery and a fuel deport in Belgorod have been extinguished  following further drone attacks.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are steady after easing back yesterday amid a build in stocks and weaker weekly demand according to the latest EIA data. Implied distillates demand remains below all recent years except for 2020 and the rate of increase in gasoline demand has slowed.
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 24.95$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 22.68$/bbl
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Crude markets have found support with a softer USD as the market assess the possibility of US Fed rate cuts in September and despite an unexpected crude stock build in the latest EIA data.

  • Front month is still net down on the week after the bearish reaction to the OPEC+ plan to increase supply later this year. OPEC retains the flexibility to alter that plan depending on market developments.
    • Brent AUG 24 up 0.4% at 78.69$/bbl
    • WTI JUL 24 up 0.5% at 74.42$/bbl
    • Gasoil JUN 24 up 1.4% at 711$/mt
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.02$/bbl at 0.35$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.13$/bbl at 3.5$/bbl
  • EIA showed crude stocks built primarily on the Gulf Coast and West Coast amid an increase in both imports and exports. Refinery runs increased again with utilisation up over 95% and crude runs the highest since Dec 2019.
  • Saudi Aramco cut its OSP for Arab Light to Asia by $0.5/bbl to a $2.40/bbl premium over Oman/Dubai average, the first cut in five months and at the lower end of expectations. The cut comes amid falling Middle East crude benchmarks and weaker Asian refinery margins.
  • Fires at a the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery and a fuel deport in Belgorod have been extinguished  following further drone attacks.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are steady after easing back yesterday amid a build in stocks and weaker weekly demand according to the latest EIA data. Implied distillates demand remains below all recent years except for 2020 and the rate of increase in gasoline demand has slowed.
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 24.95$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 22.68$/bbl