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OIL: Crude to Face Downward Pressure in 2025: Kpler

OIL
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Downside pressure awaits for oil prices next year as balances weaken, according to Kpler.

  • Kpler’s latest analysis reveals a weakening in global oil prices, primarily driven by downward revisions in Chinese oil demand due to underwhelming economic activity.
  • While Kpler expects stronger Asian demand in Q4, an increase in OPEC+ supply combined with lower global refinery runs is likely to encourage surpluses over Jan-May 2025.
  • The situation in Libya, where 70% of output has been disrupted, may persist longer than the market currently expects.
  • Additionally, the potential for upcoming Fed rate cuts could provide a slight boost to prices in the near term.
  • Meanwhile, market dynamics are shiting, with Brent backwardation steepening and Dubai’s narrowing. This is driving the Brent-Dubai EFS spread to $3.2/b, the highest since Oct. 2023 and is effectively limiting the West-East arbitrage.

 

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Downside pressure awaits for oil prices next year as balances weaken, according to Kpler.

  • Kpler’s latest analysis reveals a weakening in global oil prices, primarily driven by downward revisions in Chinese oil demand due to underwhelming economic activity.
  • While Kpler expects stronger Asian demand in Q4, an increase in OPEC+ supply combined with lower global refinery runs is likely to encourage surpluses over Jan-May 2025.
  • The situation in Libya, where 70% of output has been disrupted, may persist longer than the market currently expects.
  • Additionally, the potential for upcoming Fed rate cuts could provide a slight boost to prices in the near term.
  • Meanwhile, market dynamics are shiting, with Brent backwardation steepening and Dubai’s narrowing. This is driving the Brent-Dubai EFS spread to $3.2/b, the highest since Oct. 2023 and is effectively limiting the West-East arbitrage.

 

Keep reading...Show less