Oil Edges Higher with Demand in Focus Ahead of Fed Decision

Front month crude is edging higher to reverse some of the decline from yesterday with focus on uncertain global demand ahead of the US Fed decision later today while the risk of an escalation in the conflict in Israel seem to have eased for now. US Secretary of State Blinken will return to the region including Israel to continue his efforts to ensure the conflict doesn’t spread.

• Brent JAN 24 up 0.8% at 85.7$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 up 0.7% at 81.57$/bbl
• Gasoil NOV 23 down -0.3% at 879.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 1.47$/bbl at -4.62$/bbl
• The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.6 as the data mirrored the disappointing official data yesterday amid concern for a weakening economic recovery in China and calls for more policy support.
• The risk premium to oil is fading according to Standard Chartered while the near term tight market is likely to turn to demand destruction and lower prices.
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.59$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.09$/bbl at 2.33$/bbl
• The crude curve backwardation and near term call options premium are softening amid easing upside risks due to the contained ground offensive into Gaza. The prompt Brent spread is down from 1.28$/bbl on 20 Oct to 0.59$/bbl and Jun24-Dec24 is down from 3.42$/bbl to 2.31$/bbl.
• Gasoline and diesel cracks continue to edge higher this week ahead of EIA data today with relatively tight distillates supplies and low stocks and despite weak gasoline fundamentals amid low demand and ample supply. BP has said that gasoline and diesel is currently oversupplied, according to Bloomberg.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 12.02$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.1$/bbl at 41.51$/bbl