Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Edges Down

Crude Prices edged down, although have recovered some of the losses since the intraday low of $85.68/b, as the market continues to monitor the ongoing situation in the Middle East.

• WTI NOV 23 down -0.6% at 86.18$/bbl
• Gasoil NOV 23 down -1.6% at 911.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.46$/bbl
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET.
• US crude oil inventories are expected to rise by 0.4m bbl on the week when the EIA releases its weekly summary Oct. 18, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.
• Venezuela will resume talks with US officials today in Barbados in a move that will potentially ease sanctions on its oil. Both governments agreed to a deal to ease US sanctions on Venezuela oil in exchange for competitive and international monitored presidential elections next year.
• Angola is set to export 1.13m b/d of crude in December, based on an initial loading programme seen by Bloomberg.
• Chinese President Xi is hosting the 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on Tuesday with about 140 nations in attendance, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said that global oil demand for H2 2023 is likely to be 103m b/d with the company’s spare capacity at 3m b/d.
• Peak demand is forecast at around 105mb/d in 2029 according to Energy Intelligence although with growth narrowing to around 100k-200kb/d annually from 2027.
• Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy expects Brent crude oil prices to be trading at around $85/bbl next year, he said during the annual Energy Intelligence Forum in London
• Russian seaborne crude shipments last week rose again to 3.51mbpd as of 15 October, up by 285kbpd from the prior, Bloomberg tanker-tracking data showed. The four-week average rose to 3.36mbpd.
• Kazakhstan Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev sees Druzhba pipeline crude-oil shipments to Germany in 2024 “comparable” to this year according to Bloomberg.
• European crudes, such as Troll and Oseburg, climbed to a premium of $5/b against North Sea Dated, the highest since Aug. 2022 amid a tight market, according to Kpler citing Argusmedia’s price assessments.