Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Holds onto Gains

Crude oil continues to trade higher, maintaining most of the gains from earlier in the day. Tight supplies and inventory drawdowns due to OPEC+ production cuts are providing upside, while a broader risk appetite weakness and a stronger US dollar today offer some downside.

• WTI NOV 23 up 0.9% at 90.47$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.11$/bbl at -3.54$/bbl
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET.
• China demand will be in focus this week with PMI data due out at the end of the week and with a demand boost expected during the upcoming Golden Week holiday period.
• Heavy Western Canadian Select’s discount to WTI in Alberta for Q1 has narrowed to $18.90/b from $19.61/b, according to Bloomberg sources, following regulatory approval for the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline.
• Mexican company Vista Energy has raised its production forecast for the Vaca Muerta shale reserve in Argentina to 100k b/d by 2026, according to Reuters, up from 80k b/d previously.
• Nigeria’s crude exports are set to gain by 12% m/m in November with exports from 14 grades showing 1.42mb/d for Nov, up from 1.27mb/d in October according to Bloomberg.
• Kuwait’s oil exports are shifting from crude oil to refined petroleum products following the addition of new refining capacity, according to EIA Country Analysis data.
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports have been curbed by maintenance at export terminals. Shipments from Russia fell by 100k b/d to 3.2m b/d in the seven days to Sep. 24.
• There is no risk to Azerbaijan's oil infrastructure amidst the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict according to Kpler. Baku has reclaimed control of Nagorno-Karabakh without impacting oil infrastructure.
• Germany and Kazakhstan are cooperating to boost their bilateral trade in crude oil, according to Bloomberg.