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Oil Lower on Volume Surge, With Focus Remaining on Iran, Russia

COMMODITIES
  • Both WTI and Brent crude futures trade in solid negative territory, with downside accelerating in recent trade as volume picks up markedly headed into the NY crossover. WTI and Brent now trade comfortably below both the psychological supports of $90/bbl and $91/bbl respectively with both front-month futures seeing over 15,000 contracts change hands inside 10 minutes.
  • Price action looks driven by order flow and a technical break through support, but newsflow remains oil bearish as focus rests on Iran and Russia.
  • Overnight, Russia's top negotiator told Kommersant that proposals to revive the Iran nuclear deal are "on the finish line" with documents being finalised.
  • Separately, French President Macron has talked against the possibility of a near-term escalation of Russia-West tensions, stating that he managed to get from Putin that there was no further escalation in the Ukraine situation.
  • WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend but appear to be correcting lower. The focus is on a climb towards $94.13 next, 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing. Support is seen at $86.34, the Jan 31 low.
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