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Oil Prices Edge Up On Continued Supply Fears

  • Crude oil prices have edged up today amidst geopolitical tension with the US deploying troops to Eastern Europe and OPEC+ announcing a planned output rise in line with expectations.
  • OPEC+ agreed to raise production another 400kbpd in March. Supply side fears remain though, with spare capacity seen now largely confined to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait.
  • JPM’s Head of Commodities Strategy said oil could hit $120/bbl if geopolitical risks escalate.
  • WTI is up +0.1% at $88.30, having earlier cleared resistance at $88.87 (Jan 28 high) before retracing.
  • On a busy day, the most active strikes in the H2 contract have been $81/bbl puts.
  • Brent is +0.4% at $89.55, with a similar move clearing the Jan 28 high of $90.27 and getting close to second resistance at $90.69 (2.00 proj of the Dec 2-9-20 price swing).
  • Gold meanwhile continued to edge up 0.3% to $1806.4, remaining comfortably between resistance of $1822.2 (Jan 27 high) and support of $1780.4 (Jan 28 low).

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