Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Get a Boost

Gasoline cracks have seen a strong rise during the day, maintaining its gradual revival since last week. Gasoline is up around 20% over the last five days. Despite this, demand remains tepid, while stocks have risen above normal. Refiners continue yielding strong supplies with margins supported by robust diesel cracks. Diesel cracks have also rebounded in US hours, as crude reversed most of its gains.

• US gasoline crack up 1.3$/bbl at 12.87$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 1.4$/bbl at 43.1$/bbl
• US Crude oil refiners in Q4 will moderate the high run-rates seen in the summer, amid weak gasoline margins and overhauls, according to Reuters.
• Refiners in the Great Lakes running heavy sour crudes are capitalising on delays in the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and thus falling Canadian crude prices, according to OPIS.
• European gasoline arrivals into US ports rose by 23% on the week in the seven days to Nov. 2, according to Bloomberg, recovering from a six-month low the previous week.
• Weaker demand expectations in Europe and Asia will skew Gasoil margin risks to the downside according to FGE. Gasoil/diesel demand in Europe has been revised down by 180k b/d compared with the outlook last month for the Sep-Dec period due to weak manufacturing and demand data. Asian gasoil consumption is expected to see a seasonal decrease led by China falling 180k b/d on the month in Dec and by a further 320k b/d in Jan.
• European gasoline exports rose 1% on the month in October to 4.13m t but down 18% compared from October last year according to Vortexa data via Argus. An increase in shipments to Nigeria offset lower demand from the US.
• Chinese refinery utilisation rates at teapots in the refining hub of Shandong province are averaging about 57% in early November - down from about 65% in early October, according to China-based consultancy Longzhong.
• Russia exported around 1.01m b/d of diesel from the Baltic Port of Primorsk in October, equivalent to around 244k b/d, according to Bloomberg.
• The 5.8m tons per year (115k b/d) Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic plans a turnaround in April to allow for a move away from Russian crude according to Bloomberg.
• Medium Range Tanker rates from Northwest Europe face additional pressure this winter, amid high US gasoline stocks and softening demand from WAF, according to Kpler.
• Passenger jet fuel demand in the seven days to Nov. 13 is set to fall by 3.8% on the week to 6.1m b/d, reversing last week’s moderate rise, according to BNEF.
• Global air passenger capacity saw another weekly fall in the week starting Nov. 6, down 3% on the week to 103.4m seats, according to OAG.
• Prompt spot supply of diesel is tightening from a low base, amid maintenance, refinery issues and a lack of available barges on the Rhine, Argus said.