Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Falls

Crude futures and time spreads continue to pull back today, despite a temporary rebound earlier in the day. A reducing Middle East risk premium amid significant uncertainty over Israel’s response to Iran’s attack last weekend has added downward pressure, with a declining concern over interruptions to Iranian oil supply.

• Brent JUN 24 down 0.7% at 86.67$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 down 0.5% at 82.25$/bbl
• Israel is unlikely to carry out a strike on Iran until after Passover, starting 29 April, according to ABC citing a senior US official.
• Axios reporting that US and Israeli officials will today hold a virtual meeting about a potential IDF operation in Rafah - the second such meeting in recent weeks.
• The Biden administration said it will not renew the Venezuelan sanctions waiver set to expire Thursday that had eased its ability to export oil to wider markets – namely the U.S.
• Geopolitical risks added a $4-5/bbl premium for oil earlier this week and now provides a floor for oil according to Citi’s Dirk Willer but he does not expect further escalations in the bank’s base case.
• Global oil demand so far in April averaged 101mbpd, tracking a 1.46mbpd year on year increase, JP Morgan said in a note.
• Chinese crude oil imports in March rose to 49.050mn tons, up from 44.140mn tons in February but down by 6.2% year on year, Customs General Administration data showed.
• A total of 790kbpd of crude oil was added to China’s strategic or commercial stockpiles in March, up from 570kbpd over January and February according to Reuters calculations.
• Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian oil producer, halted production at 493 oil wells due to flooding, most in the Aktobe region, Bloomberg said.