Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Rises

Crude prices are rebounding and recovered some of yesterday’s losses following the comments from Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak that the oil market balance between demand and supply is fragile and an upward revision for this year’s oil demand forecast from the IEA. Crude markets have relinquished some earlier gains after after a bigger than expected build in crude stocks rising the most since February.

• Brent DEC 23 up 1% at 86.72$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0.9% at 84.2$/bbl
• OPEC has kept its 2023 global oil-demand growth forecast steady at 2.4m b/d, based on its monthly oil outlook for October.
• The IEA Monthly Oil Market Report revised up global oil demand growth for this year by 100kbpd to 2.3mbpd to reach 101.9mbpd in 2023, driven by growth in China, India and Brazil according to
• .
• EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Oct 06: Crude stocks +10,176 vs Exp -431, Crude production +300.
• The Biden administration has targeted two tankers and their owners with sanctions for being in breach of the G7 oil price cap of $60/bbl.
• Kazakh KEBCO oil exported out of Russian ports fell 19% in September m/m to 0.64mn metric tons according to LSEG data.
• Brent prices could rise to 105$/bbl if Iran’s oil exports were to fall to year-ago levels due to increased enforcement of sanctions according to Goldman Sachs.
• Saudi’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak interview: Oil producers will continue to work together and act pre-emptively according to bin Salman while Novak said the balance between supply and demand is fragile and could be affected by slowing global economic growth.
• Russia forecasts global oil demand to grow by 2.4mbpd, hitting a new all-time high this year, Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak said.
• Iraq is ready to restart oil flows through the Iraq/Turkey pipeline (ITP) but still requires an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government according to Iraqi prime minister.
• Forties October crude supplies are facing increased demand from Asian buyers according to Kpler and LSEG data pushing it to a $2.15/bbl premium to dated Brent October 6 – its highest since August 2022.