Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Rises

Crude markets have risen during European trading, supported by US Fed rate cut signals, a lower US dollar, stimulus measures for the Chinese property sector, and further worsening in Middle East tensions.

• Brent APR 24 up 0.9% at 81.24$/bbl
• WTI MAR 24 up 0.9% at 76.56$/bbl
• CBS News is reporting that according to its sources, the US has a series of strikes planned in the coming days in response to the drone attack on a Jordanian outpost that killed three US service personnel and injured dozens more over the weekend.
• OPEC+ has not made any recommendations to change the group’s output policy in the today’s JMMC meeting but noted high conformity with production quotas, the group said in a release.
• Oil flows via the Suez Canal are down about 15% with safety concerns impacting the shipping route according to Morgan Stanley on Jan 31.
• Russian oil tankers sailing through the Red Sea have only fallen slightly amid ongoing Houthi rebel attacks, while traffic last week was still around 20% higher than the 2023 average, Vortexa data showed.
• India’s crude oil imports from Russia fell for the second consecutive month in January to 1.289mbpd, a one-year low, as tighter Western sanctions hit supply of light sweet Sokol grade, LSEG data showed.
• China’s crude refining capacity may increase 2.7% y/y in 2024 according to GL Consulting, a division of OilChem.
• Chinese oil inventories fell to the lowest level in eight months at the start of January but remained well above the five-year average, Vortexa data showed.
• Wood Mackenzie forecast that global oil demand will grow by 2m b/d this year, with China accounting for 25% of the increase, according to Interfax reporting.