Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Weakens

Crude markets have fallen during the day as the market remains fixed on tensions in the Middle East. The pressure on oil has eased slightly as negotiations to release Israeli hostages has put the ground invasion of Gaza on hold.

• Brent DEC 23 down -0.6% at 91.62$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 down -0.9% at 87.25$/bbl
• Vortexa post earlier highlighted that global crude in floating storage has declined to a 4-year low of ~63.5million bbls.
• Libyan oil production is at 1.21mn bpd while condensate production is at 52,000 bpd according to the National Oil Corporation Sunday.
• Nigeria’s scheduled December exports of Bonny Light crude are set to reach their highest level since April 2021, according to Bloomberg, citing loading schedules.
• US liquids growth is expected to slow in 2024 to 600kb/d compared to 1.4mb/d in 2023 amid ongoing capital discipline according to Goldman Sachs.
• China tapped into crude stockpiles for the second time in three months in September according to Reuters calculations as they processed record crude volumes while imports dipped.
• China’s crude oil production in the first three quarters of 2023 rose 1.9% on the year, according to Xinhua, citing the National Bureau of Statistics.
• Crude processing at India’s oil refiners increased 4.1% y/y in September to 20.3m tons according to preliminary data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
• Russia’s recovery in crude processing rates has slowed in October, with little additional capacity returning during the rest of the month, according to Bloomberg.
• Norway’s total liquids production in September fell to the lowest level so far this year amid a significant decline in natural gas production, NPD data showed.
• If the Israel-Hamas war worsens oil could rise 10$/bbl or more according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.
• Trafigura is seeking to charter at least one large tanker to export Venezuelan fuel oil after US sanctions have eased according to Reuters sources late last week.
• Chevron earlier agreed a deal for US producer Hess in a $53bn all-stock transaction it said today in a move for US onshore, Gulf of Mexico and Guyana assets.
• A lack of investment in Venezuela’s oil sector will result in sanctions relief only adding another 200,000 bpd to the country’s crude production by the end of 2024 according to the EIA.
• Oil service firm SLB is planning a quick return to Venezuela's oilfields after the easing of US sanctions according to the CEO on Friday last week via Reuters.