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Downdraft Dents Outlook


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EGB SUMMARY: On Friday, price action has appeared quite random at times in the
EGB space. 
- The big move occurred as the German IFO index surprised to the upside and hit
an all-time high, although the Bund contract looked like someone had pulled the
rug from under it 10 minutes before the release. Even before this, small selling
in the 10Y area of the semi-core was dragging French/Dutch/Belgian yield higher.
- Irish debt has also suffered from a developing political stand-off but early
selling appears to have subsided as markets realise that fresh elections will
unlikely create any market-unfriendly outcomes.
- The Bund contract dropped to a 162.67 before buying materialised and without
any news, quickly propelled the contract to 162.94 before the rally ran out of
- In the background, there has been a slow drip of German political headlines
and it looks as if next week the SDP and CDU/CSU will talk about either a formal
coalition or provision of support for a minority government.
- There is an early US bond market close today.

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