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Only Marginal Lift In 10Y Yields After Lows Since Early February Post-Powell

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have moved a little off yesterday’s post-Powell highs but hold the bulk of the rally.
  • TYU4 trades at 112-04+ off yesterday’s high of 112-10+, amidst heavy cumulative volumes already above 500k as Asia and European investors reacted to yesterday’s Fed communications.
  • The push higher surged through resistance levels including a notable 111-31 whilst testing 112-10 (1.5% Fibo proj of the Apr 25 – May 16 – May 29 price swing). It opens 112-20+ (Fibo proj of the same swing).
  • Cash yields are 1.5-2.2bp higher across the curve, with the belly leading the increase.
  • 10Y yields at 4.049% are off yesterday’s low of 4.0296%, which cleared the Mar 8 low (4.0344%). They were last sub-4% in early February.
  • 2s10s is near unchanged on the day at -22.3bps, within the week’s range.
  • Data: Challenger job cuts Jul (0730ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Nonfarm productivity/ULCs Q2 prelim (0830ET), S&P Global US mfg PMI Jul final (0945ET), ISM mfg Jul (1000ET), Construction spending Jun (1000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $90B 4W, $85B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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