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Only Two FOMC Members See Unemployment Reaching 5%

FED

A few observations on the forecast distribution charts in the back of the SEP:

  • Only two participants penciled in the unemployment rate going as high as 5% in the forecast horizon (in 2023), per the projection distribution.
  • Only one sees PCE inflation above 4% in 2023. All see it below 3% by 2024.
  • All saw their inflation as being more uncertain vs June's meeting, and all but 2 of the 19saw the risks weighted to the upside.
  • However, it looks from the diffusion indices that the uncertainty over the unemployment rate has exceeded that of the inflation outlook. Certainly the first time in the post-pandemic period.
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