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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
OIL
The share of OPEC supply of total liquids supply is forecast to rise to 40% by 2045, compared with 34% in 2022 according to the 2023 OPEC World Oil Outlook.
- OPEC liquids supply is expected to rise from 34.2mbpd in 2022 to 46.1mbpd by 2045.
- Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow from 65.8mbpd in 2022 to 72.7mbpd in 2028, with US supply accounting for around 3.4mbpd. Other supply will come from with other major drivers being Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Qatar and Norway.
- With US liquids supply set to peak around the end of the current decade, overall non-OPEC production starts declining from the early 2030s, eventually falling to 69.9mbpd by 2045.
- Global refining capacity is forecast to grow by 6.6mbpd between 2022-2028 with Asia-Pacific accounting for 3.1mbpd, Middle East with 1.6mbpd and Africa with 1.2mbpd.
- Global refining capacity additions are set at 19.2mbpd in 2023-2045. Around 85% of long-term additions are expected in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa.
- Global oil demand is set to reach 110.2mbpd in 2028, up by 10.6mbpd from 2022 levels. Non-OECD demand will account for around 10.1mbpd of the increase.
- Oil demand is further expected to reach 116mbpd by 2045, revised up by 6mbpd from last year’s report, and an increase of 16mbpd from 2022 levels, with non-OECD demand rising by 26mbpd, while OECD demand is forecast to contract by around 9.3mbpd.
- The largest contributions to the non-OECD oil demand increase are set to come from India, adding 6.6mbpd to oil demand over the forecast period.
- The largest incremental demand over the forecast period is projected for the road transportation, petrochemical and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors is set to increase by 4.6mbpd, 4.3mbpd, and 4.1mbpd, respectively.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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