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OPEC Spare Capacity (Incl. Iran) Up to 4.9mbpd

OIL

OPEC spare capacity (including from Iran) was about 4.9mbpd as of December, according to Bloomberg.

  • The actual extra supply available from member nations could be much lower as countries may not be able to raise output by as much as the baseline numbers imply.
  • Spare capacity is concentrated in Saudi Arabia at 1.5mbpd, the UAE at 1mbpd and Iraq at 320kbpd. Spare capacity excluding Iran was estimated at 2.4mbpd in October according to Energy Intelligence.
  • Production target cuts at the end of 2022 have raised the OPEC+ spare capacity to reduce any potential disruption and upside price risk from unexpected supply issues.
  • Under the current OPEC agreement any nation with spare capacity cannot unilaterally increase output to compensate for the shortfall from other members.


Source: Bloomberg

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