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Options Markets See Scandi & EM Currencies as Most Vulnerable Over CPI

FOREX
  • Overnight USD implied vols are broadly higher across a panel of both G10 and EM currencies, with today's US CPI release spurring hedging activity in anticipation of acute volatility.
  • USD/JPY vols now clear 32 points, the highest level since the September Fed rate decision (where they hiked 75bps) and the third highest read since the onset of the COVID pandemic in 2020. An ATM overnight USD/JPY straddle breaks even on a circa 180 pip move in the pair today - the widest breakeven since Q3 last year.
  • In terms of vol premium added, EM currencies and Scandi FX are seeing front-end vols rise most materially, suggesting high beta markets are at risk of the most out-sized moves. In G10, overnight SEK and NOK vols have added near 5 points in the run-up to CPI, while ZAR vols have added just over 7 points.

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